投资与投机的对比——塞思·卡拉曼《安全边际》读后感

最近拜读了卡拉曼的著作《 Margin of Safety 》（《安全边际》），做了整理分享给大家。作者首先对投机、金融创新、个人投资者和机构投资者行为等进行分析，解释了投资者造成亏损的原因，之后将自己的价值投资哲学的目标、方法论和具体评估指标进行分享，最后用自身详实的价值投资案例将理论联系到实践，具体阐述价值投资的投资过程。作者对风险尤其强调，反对用波动解释风险，指出低风险高收益机会的真实存在，另外书中概率思维随处可见。读书中有感而发的详细记录如下： 

原文：You may be wondering, as several of my friend have, why I would write a book that could encourage more people to become value investors. Don't I run the risk of encouraging increased competition, thereby reducing my own investment returns?

读后感受：卡拉曼把价值投资心得公开介绍的初衷被读者甚至朋友所不解。卡拉曼解释原因，其一，价值投资的方法被价值投资大师们多次公开介绍过，但投资者能够在纷繁复杂的投资方法中认可价值投资殊为不易；其二，要成为成功的价值投资者需要做艰苦的工作，只有极少数愿意付出大量时间、精力和具备较强心理素质的投资者才能在认同的基础上获得成功；其三，对于非理性投资者灾难性损失的触动让卡拉曼宁可减少自己的超额收益空间也愿意做出分享的善举。

原文：President of the Sequoia Fund, Inc, “Disregarding for the moment whether the prevailing level of stock prices on January 1, 1987 was logical, we are certain that the value of American industry in the aggregate had not increased by 44% as of August 25. Similarly, it is highly unlikely that the value of American industry declined by 23% on a single day, October 19.”

读后感受：美国企业的价值不会在8个月里上升44%，也不会在一天就下降23%。正如诺奖得主罗伯特席勒研究了1881年以来的美国股市年波动率和公允价值波动率得出结论：与基本面相比，资产价格呈现过度波动（类似于封闭式基金二级市场价格波动率较大，而NAV本身并未显著波动）。而正是这种过度波动给价值投资者提供了超额收益空间。

原文：If investors could predict the future direction of the market, they would certainly not choose to be value investors all the time.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为股票投资者至少可以通过三种方式赚钱：1、企业运营产生的自由现金流；2、缩小价格与企业价值的差距；3、投资者愿意以更高的市盈率或市净率来购买股票。如果投资者具备了预测市场的能力，会更倾向于用投机的方式3来赚钱，而价值投资者的投资基础是避免过度自信、始终敬畏市场、不做短期预测。把股票当做交易用的沙丁鱼或纸牌的投资方式是极其危险的（也许你可以找到一个买家，一个更傻的傻瓜，愿意出更高的价钱，也许你找不到，于是你就成了那个最后的傻瓜）。

原文：Both investments and speculations can be bought and sold. Both typically fluctuate in price and can thus appear to generate investment returns. But there is one critical difference: investments throw off cash flow for the benefit of the owners; speculations do not.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为投资品和投机品的重要区别在于是否会为持有人带来现金流，收藏品（艺术品、古董、稀有硬币）都应该类于投机品，它们的价值完全随供求关系而波动。而投机并不限局限于在标的选择上区分，单看持有的证券并不说明什么，任何一个证券都可以被投资或投机，或兼而有之。当证券选择呈现朝三暮四且平均持有时间非常短（换手率较高），我们很难肯定这是一种投资行为。投机和投资相生相克，如果没有投机者的存在，价格不会偏离价值太远，投机本身也给价值投资创造空间，如同解药往往伴生在毒草附近。

原文：If you look to Mr. Market as a creator of investment opportunities(where price departs from underlying value), you have the makings of a value investor.

读后感受：理解市场先生的局限性、相信市场的非有效性是价值投资的基础，判别并利用市场先生的情绪来赚钱是价值投资的方法，抵制住市场先生的疯狂和恐惧不仅在财务上甚至在心理账户上都是非常困难的。

原文：Many investors greedily persist in the investment world's version of a search for the holy grail: the attempt to find a successful investment formula.

读后感受：卡拉曼告诫投资者打消寻找投资领域的圣杯或魔法公式的想法，建议投资者警惕单纯的后视镜投资规则（例如简单买入低市盈率或将市场震荡作为买入时机），其认为金融市场极其复杂不能简单用归纳法来作为投资规则，建议把时间和精力花在某一特定投资机会的基本面分析上。

原文：Investors even remotely tempted to buy new issues must ask themselves how they could possibly fare well when a savvy issuer and greedy underwriter are on the opposite side of every underwriting.

读后感受：如果决定单打独斗，那么首先以一种保守的态度考虑下自己的专业技能和精力投入在参与投资博弈牌局的人群里能排到什么位置，而如果决定将资金托付给机构投资者，那么首先考虑一下自己和机构的利益是否一致。这将大大提高投资的长期成功概率。对机构投资者追逐短期收益、争夺相对排名的描述上，卡拉曼和史文森的观点十分类似也很犀利。

原文：Financial Market innovations are good for wall street but bad for clients. Investors must recognize that the early success of an innovation is not a reliable indicator of its ultimate merit. Both buyers and sellers must believe that they will benefit in the short run, or the innovation will not get off the drawing board; the longer term consequences of such innovations, however, may not have been considered carefully.

读后感受：卡拉曼建议投资者警惕金融市场的创新，最初获得成功的创新往往在更长一段时间内会造成不良后果。商业趋势、企业成长是有天花板的，而人性的贪婪却永无止境，当蒙蔽心灵的设计师与蒙上眼睛的投资者一拍即合后，灾难的种子就已种下。书中介绍的抵押贷款证券市场的创新及而后演变的次贷危机是很好的案例。

原文：In the building practices of ancient Rome, when scaffolding was removed from a completed Roman arch, the Roman engineer stood beneath. If the arch came crashing down, he was the first to know. Thus his concern for the quality of the arch was intensely personal, and it is not surprising that so many Roman arches have survived.

读后感受：罗马的拱门安全关系到工程师的生命安全，因此那么多罗马拱门能保留至今而屹立不倒。一家连自己的厨师都到别处用餐的饭店能有多美味和安全呢，资金管理人和其员工们将大量自己的钱投资于自家产品中是好产品的可靠指标。

原文：Remaining fully invested at all times certainly simplifies the investment task. The investor simply choose the best available investments. Relative attractiveness becomes the only investment yardstick; no absolute standard is to be met.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为一直保持满仓和追求相对表现的定位是一致的（简化了投资任务、挑选最好的投资品即可）。而以价值投资为基石的绝对收益标准只有在获得的机会不仅数量充足，而且非常有吸引力时，才会选择满仓投资，这不是基于市场预判自上而下的择时行为，而是基于价值发现自下而上的择股行为。作为选择管理人的个人投资者，倒是可以选择靠谱的基金品种满仓持有，让管理人去帮助你做判断。

原文：For most of the 1980s the default-rate numerator(the volume of junk-bond defaults occurring in a given year) lagged behind the rapidly growing denominator(the total amount of junk bonds outstanding during that year).It was only when issuance virtually ceased in 1990 that the deterioration in credit quality was reflected in default-rate statistics.

读后感受：从20世纪80年代垃圾债违约率统计中的缺陷、接受无追索权的零息债券、对现金流和EBITDA有缺陷的定义等案例可见，金融行业创造出新的评估方法，用一种自欺欺人的方式来佐证新需求的合理性，结果都惨淡收场。

原文：I too believe that avoiding loss should be the primary goal of every investor. This does not mean that investors should never incur the risk of any loss at all. Rather ”don't lose money”means that over several years an investment portfolio should not be exposed to appreciable loss of principal.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为投资的主要目标是规避损失，执念于预期收益会降低对风险的警惕程度。而只有在承担风险下致力于规避损失的投资，我们才有望在几轮投资周期过后不至于出现亏损。

原文：An investor who earns 16 percent annual returns over a decade, for example, will perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20 percent a year for nine years and then loses 15 percent the tenth year.

读后感受：连续9年收益20%第10年亏损15%的投资者总财富不如连续10年收益16%的投资者，对隐蔽高风险的识别是决定长期投资致胜的关键，我们可能做“对”了很多次，例如案例中的前9年都很满意，但如果获得相仿收益的基础是建立在承担较高风险之上，遭遇到大风险就会回吐大部分收益甚至出现亏损，我们必须首先让自己在各种情况下存活下来（在市场高估值延长的时候，价值投资者的表现可能不及其他投资者或整个市场。然而，从长期看价值投资法规避了大风险而非常成功）。

原文：They are not influenced by the way others are performing; they are motivated only by their own results. They have infinite patience and are willing to wait until they are thrown a pitch they can handle--an undervalued investment opportunity.

读后感受：价值投资者“目中无人”，棒球场上只有自己的坚持，等待着那个属于自己的球，孤独的摆着姿势。卡拉曼较少投资科技类公司（不易了解）、商业银行（资产很难分析）、财产保险公司（资产和负债都难以分析）。

原文：Value investors continually compare potential new investments with their current holdings in order to ensure that they own only the most undervalued opportunities available. In other words, no investment should be considered sacred when a better one comes along.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为价值投资方法不会爱上自己的持仓，只要发现更低估的标的，即便止损也要忍痛割爱调仓。没有一项投资是神圣不可侵犯的。而客户质量决定了管理人用价值投资管理产品的深度。

原文：There are three central elements to a value investment philosophy. First, value investing is a bottom up strategy entailing the identification of specific undervalued investment opportunities. Second, value investing is absolute performance, not relative performance oriented. Finally, value investing is a risk averse approach; attention is paid as much to what can go wrong(risk) as to what can go right(return).

读后感受：卡拉曼总结价值投资哲学三要素为：自下而上、绝对收益、关注风险。

原文：The risk of an investment is described by both the probability and the potential amount of loss. There are only a few things investors can do to counteract risk: diversify adequately, hedge when appropriate, and invest with a margin of safety.

读后感受：卡拉曼认为真正的风险在于一项投资的亏损概率和潜在亏损幅度。造成亏损的真正风险无法根据历史数据来决定，用beta、alpha无法刻画风险和超额收益，beta无法区分永久性亏损风险和价格暂时性的波动风险。同时卡拉曼提出应对风险的建议：多元化（相关系数尽量低尤佳）、适度对冲和留足安全边际。

原文：While a great many methods of business valuation exist, there are only three that I find useful. The first is an analysis of going-concern value, known as net present value(NPV) analysis. The second method of business valuation analyzes liquidation value, the expected proceeds if a company were to be dismantled and the assets sold off. The third method of valuation, stock market value, is an estimate of the price at which a company, or its subsidiaries considered separately, would trade in the stock market.

读后感受：企业价值的评估方法卡拉曼用经验告诉我们三种方法是有用的：净现值法、清算价值分析法、股市价值法。在净现值法中评估的逻辑假设比评估的结论重要的多，由于预估未来现金流和贴现率是非常困难的，所以要做保守估计提升安全边际。书中也对传统评估中的每股收益、账面价值和股息收益率并不能作为较好的价值衡量标准进行了分析解释。

原文：Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values.

读后感受：投资者必须记住股价有时候会给企业的价值带来巨大的影响，价值投资大师也会借鉴索罗斯的反身性理论。卡拉曼的投资哲学或许是在饱览思考各种策略并长期实践体验之后的选择。

原文：Value investing by its very nature is contrarian. Investors may find it difficult to act as contrarians for they can never be certain whether or when they will be proven correct. Since they are acting against the crowd, contrarians are almost always initially wrong and likely for a time to suffer paper losses.

读后感受：价值投资的本质是逆势思维，普通投资者要实践十分困难，由于身单影只且不知道自己的坚持是否正确、何时才能体现出正确。卡拉曼认为价值投资者的逆势思维不是勇气，而是傲气，每一次的投资都在宣称“我了解的比市场上任何人都多，所以我与众不同。”建立在大数据自学习基础之上的人工智能正在兴起，海量数据进化学习的归纳法可能远胜于人类，由于证券市场本身具有周期性，克服人性的人工智能将有可能对价值投资构成威胁，芝加哥学派的理论在未来也有可能近似成为现实。

原文：Do they do what is promised, and is it in your best interest? Managing their own money in parallel with their clients? Are all clients treated equally? Have the assets under management grown exceedingly large? Dose the money manager have an intelligent strategy that is likely to result in long-term investment success? How long a track record is there? Was it achieved over one or more market and economic cycles? Was it achieved by the same person who will manage you money, and does it represent the complete results of this manager's entire investment career or only the results achieved during some favorable period? Did this manager invest conservatively in down markets, or did clients lose money? Were the results fairly steady over time, or were they volatile? Was the record the result of one or two spectacular successes or of numerous moderate winners? If this manager's record turns mediocre after one or two spectacular successes are excluded, is there a sound reason to expect more home runs in the future? Is this manager still following the same strategy that was employed to achieve his or her past successes? Were the investments in the underlying portfolio themselves particularly risky, such as the shares of highly leveraged companies?

读后感受：比较管理人之间的投资业绩很简单，但评估为获得成功而承担的风险则要难的多，且只能评估过去所承担的风险，未来亦不可知。卡拉曼建议投资者在选择管理人之前考虑以上问题，十分详实，深受启发！